Fair Price
Estimate a company through EPS DCF, P/E, or P/S scenarios with a margin of safety.
EPS DCF active
Best for profitable, stable businesses where EPS already reflects the business engine. It is intentionally conservative for early growth stories.
AAPL fair price
$138.98
Safe buy price
$97.28
Market price
$190.00
The price the market is currently showing.
Upside / downside
-26.9%
Distance between market price and the model's safe-buy price.
PV, years 1-5
$34.32
Present value of the first five forecast years.
Terminal PV
$104.66
Present value of the value after year five.
Potentially above model value
The market price is above the safety-adjusted buy price.
DCF breakdown
| Year | EPS forecast | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $7.28 | 0.909 | $6.62 |
| 2 | $8.15 | 0.826 | $6.74 |
| 3 | $9.13 | 0.751 | $6.86 |
| 4 | $10.23 | 0.683 | $6.99 |
| 5 | $11.46 | 0.621 | $7.11 |
| Terminal value | $168.56 | Year 5 | $104.66 |
Formula
Sum PV (years 1-5) + Terminal PV = Fair Price.
How it works
Think of a company like an apple tree. EPS is the apples it produces today, growth estimates more apples in the next five years, and the discount rate asks what those future apples are worth in today's money.
Plain-language guide
What do these numbers mean?
This calculator does not tell you to buy or sell. It shows the price implied by your selected model and how far the market is from that price.
Fair price
An estimated share price from the selected model. It is not a forecast or guarantee, just the output of your assumptions.
Safe buy price
Fair price minus the margin of safety. It is lower so there is room for errors in the data or forecast.
Margin of safety
A discount to the model price. 30% means you only consider buying if the market is roughly one-third below your estimate.
EPS
Earnings per share. If a company earns money steadily, EPS can be a useful base for valuation.
P/E
How much the market pays for 1 dollar of earnings. A higher P/E means the market expects more from the future.
P/S
How much the market pays for 1 dollar of revenue. It can help with companies whose profits are still uneven.
DCF
An attempt to estimate what future profits are worth today. Bolder assumptions create bolder results.
Discount rate
The higher it is, the stricter the model is about future money. It is a way to account for time and risk.
How to use it without a finance degree
- 1Start with a model you understand: DCF or P/E for stable profitable companies, often P/S for fintech and growth companies.
- 2Check the input numbers. If EPS, revenue, or price looks strange, the result will be strange too.
- 3Compare the market price with the safe buy price, not only with the fair price.
- 4If upside is negative, it is not an order to sell. It means the price is high under your current assumptions.
When not to trust the result
Do not rely on one model for banks, unprofitable growth companies, cyclical businesses, or tickers with incomplete live data. Compare several scenarios and understand the business, not only the number.